'As we expect the economy to continue to grow above the trend line, we expect capex decisions to be taken next year when there is more certainty about the cost of funding and the economy.'
The US Federal Reserve has announced to maintain its bond purchase tapering programme.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Monday said despite the latest headwinds arising from the Jackson Hole summit leading to extreme volatility, our banking system and financial markets are strong enough to withstand such pressures. Taking the markets by surprise, US Fed chair Jerome Powell had told the annual Jackson Hole summit of central bankers and economists last week that he would have to keep raising federal fund rates to tame inflation, which remains the biggest challenge to the world's largest economy. He also warned of the pains that such monetary policy actions would create on growth and jobs.
The S&P BSE Sensex gained 57 points to end at 26,064 and the Nifty50 climbed 17 points.
There has been a stellar rise for the Indian markets this far in calendar year 2021 (CY21) with the S&P BSE Sensex surging over 19 per cent. The gain in mid-and small-cap indices on the BSE has been sharper with both these indexes surging around 38 per cent and 54 per cent, respectively during this period. Rampant spread of Covid pandemic's Delta variant and the ensuing lockdown and mobility curbs across India, rising prices key commodities, including crude oil and its impact on inflation, possibility of tightening of policy stance by major global central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve (US Fed) have been some of the key headwinds that the markets successfully negotiated during this period.
Analysts caution against volatility and recommend buying stocks of companies that are on strong fundamental footing that have been beaten down badly in the recent carnage.
The rupee plunged 20 paise to close at an all-time low of 78.13 against the US dollar on Monday, as a lacklustre trend in domestic equities and stronger greenback overseas weighed on investor sentiments. Forex traders said weak Asian currencies and persistent foreign capital outflows were the other major factors that dragged the local unit down. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local currency opened at 78.20 and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.02 and a low of 78.29 against the US dollar.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
Probably 35 bps. There could be even an encore in February 2023 to take the policy rate to 6.5% before the financial year ends, predicts Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Illustration: Uttam Ghosh/Rediff.com After a brief respite at the year's start, FPIs have dumped shares worth more than $5.7 billion (Rs 42,596 crore), taking the cumulative net outflows since October to $10.5 billion (Rs 78,466 crore), and adding to the volatility on the bourses. The figure would have been a lot worse had it not been for net purchases to the tune of $5.7 billion in the primary market from October to date.
The suspected drug peddler, Dattaprasad Gaonkar, was detained from Anjuna after the accused duo "confessed" in their statement that they had procured drugs from him.
Rupee and bonds weakened on Thursday after the US Federal Reserve signalled it may increase its policy rates at the next meeting in December.
In the backdrop of the US economy slowly improving, the US Federal Reserve chairman Ben S Bernanke has said that stricter regulatory measures would be the 'best' response to tackle housing bubble.
After turning net buyers last month, foreign investors have become aggressive shoppers of Indian equities and have invested Rs 22,452 crore in the first two weeks of August amid softening inflation concerns. This was way higher than a net investment of nearly Rs 5,000 crore by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) in the entire month of July, data with depositories showed. FPIs had turned net buyers for the first time in July, after nine straight months of massive net outflows, which started in October last year.
'If because of El Nino, the monsoon is affected adversely in the current year, naturally it will affect income projections and consequently Budget numbers.'
The Sensex and Nifty spiralled lower for the fourth session on the trot on Wednesday as investors remained on edge ahead of US inflation data, which will give clues on the Federal Reserve's policy tightening trajectory. Unabated selling by foreign institutional investors and a jump in crude prices also weighed on sentiment, traders said. Despite a firm start, the 30-share BSE Sensex failed to carry forward the momentum and ended at 54,088.39, lower by 276.46 points or 0.51 per cent. During the day, it tumbled 845.55 points to 53,519.30.
'At current valuations, we believe large-caps offer better downside support.' 'Hence, we are suggesting a small tilt towards them.'
Equity market sentiment this week will be guided by global trends in the absence of any major domestic triggers, while bourses may also see some volatility amid expiry of derivatives contracts, analysts said. Fears of sooner-than-expected tapering in monetary stimulus by the US Federal Reserve, rising cases of the Delta variant of the coronavirus coupled with China's regulatory crackdown triggered selling in global markets in the previous week.
As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
The difference between what the banks play in the US and India is not that of soccer and football but rugby and football. SVB also has a unique character. But when risks are mispriced, the fallout could be very similar, points out Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
PowerGrid was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 4 per cent, followed by NTPC, Tata Steel, Bharti Airtel, Sun Pharma and Bajaj Finserv. On the other hand, IndusInd Bank, Asian Paints, Infosys, Bajaj Auto and Maruti fell up to 2.59 per cent.
The sharp correction in equity markets has taken a toll on mid-and-small cap stocks that have underperformed their large-cap peers. Thus far in calendar year 2022 (CY22), the mid-and-small cap indexes on the BSE have slipped over 8 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, as compared to a fall of around 6 per cent in the S&P BSE Sensex. While investors dumped mid-and small-cap stocks as the markets remained choppy over the past few weeks, analysts still expect these two segments to see good investor interest from a medium-to-long term perspective.
'Rate cut should reiterate RBI's commitment in providing confidence to consumers and small business.'
The winter session of Parliament will commence on November 26.
Equity benchmark Sensex on Monday crashed about 1,546 points to sink below the 58,000-level due to across-the-board selloff tracking sluggish global markets. Besides, persistent foreign capital outflows continued to affect the market sentiment, traders said. Benchmark indices started the session on a weaker note and the selling intensified during afternoon trade, with almost all sectoral indices ending in the red. The 30-share BSE Sensex ended 1,545.67 points or 2.62 per cent lower at 57,491.51.
Markets are assuming that by the second half of 2021, the world will be approaching some type of normalcy, points out Akash Prakash.
The RBI is widely expected to raise its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 8.00 per cent on Wednesday, its third such hike in four months after recent data showed both wholesale and retail inflation at multi-month highs.
The market breadth was firm. Out of 2,933 stocks traded , 1,685 stocks advanced compared to 1,136 declined on BSE.
The broader markets were marginally higher with mid-caps and small-caps gaining 0.1-0.4 per cent on the BSE.
Domestic equities will be mainly driven by global market trends, foreign institutional investors' movement and developments around new Covid variant Omicron this week, according to analysts. Markets traded under pressure last week following weak global cues and overall investor sentiment remained downbeat throughout the week, they observed. "Global markets, Omicron variant, dollar index and FIIs' behaviour will be key factors to drive the market this week," said Santosh Meena, head of research, Swastika Investmart Ltd. One major event last week was US Federal Reserve's announcement that it will end bond-buying from March, and it also signalled starting rate hike cycle thereafter.
A strong and stable dollar is both in the American interest and in the interest of the global economy, US Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke said on Wednesday.
In twin blows to Indian economic revival, higher food prices drove retail inflation to a five-month high of 7.4 per cent while factory output fell for the first time in 18 months. The second consecutive month of rise in consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation will add to the pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to again raise interest rates to tame high prices. Inflation has been above the targeted zone for the ninth month in a row and as per statute, the RBI will now have to explain to the government in writing why it failed to keep prices below 6 per cent.
It does feel like we are close to the end of the rupee's rally, says Jamal Mecklai.
The rupee's gains came even as most emerging Asian currencies eased as the yuan fell beyond 6.20 to the dollar for the first time since April last year amid market speculation that the central bank will keep the currency weak as economic growth slows.
Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said the recent interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank was not surprising for her but the timing was, asserting that the rising cost of funds will not impact the government's planned infrastructure investments. For the first time since August 2018, RBI had on May 4 delivered a blunt 40 basis points increase in key repo rate to 4.40 per cent, and also hiked the cash reserve ratio by 50 basis points to 4.5 per cent after an unscheduled meeting of the rate setting panel, citing increased inflation pressures following the Ukraine war and the resultant spike in crude oil prices. Retail inflation printed at 6.9 per cent in March and the April reading is forecast to top 7.7 per cent.
Economists warn of the impact that a Fed rate rise could have on emerging economies.
Indian rupee is likely to test 76-76.50 levels as a relatively strong greenback, boiling crude prices and COVID headwinds deepen the depreciation bias for the domestic currency, according to experts. One of the significantly-hit Asian currency in recent months amid uncertain economic times, rupee is expected to see a consolidation in the vicinity of the current level before being pulled towards the depreciation bias. While the equity market has been surging with occasional blips, the rupee has mostly been weak against the US dollar in recent months.
'A strong foreign exchange reserve is the best safety net against global spillovers.'
Bajaj Finserv was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising over 4 per cent, followed by L&T, HDFC, Axis Bank, SBI, Reliance Industries and IndusInd Bank. NSE Nifty soared 276.30 points to its new closing peak of 17,823.
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